Interest Rate Hikes Unlikely as Inflation Expected to Drop: Westpac

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Smirk noted, "We forecast that the June Monthly CPI Indicator will show a 0.3% increase for the month, causing the annual rate to decline to 3.6%."

Further insights from Smirk include the June quarter CPI forecast which anticipates a 1.0% quarterly increase and an annual rise of 3.8%. Meanwhile, the Trimmed Mean CPI, which filters out the most volatile price movements, is expected to be 0.9% for the quarter and 4.0% annually.

"By the end of 2024, we project the CPI to ease further to 2.9% annually, influenced by various cost of living measures," added Smirk.

The RBA's attention, according to Smirk, will likely be on the Trimmed Mean CPI because it mitigates most of the unusual fluctuations in cost of living metrics: "Trimmed Mean inflation will reduce to a pace of 3.5% annually by the end of 2024 and 2.8% annually by the end of 2025, signaling a continued moderation in inflation."

In the Minutes released from June’s RBA Board meeting, it was stated that there wasn’t sufficient evidence to alter the Bank’s stance on inflation. Although there were some surprises with the May CPI figures, wage growth appears to have plateaued, risks in the labor market appear biased downwards, and there's significant doubt regarding consumer strength.

Notably, the RBA's comments about the weakening labor market stood out: "The reduction in vacancy rates might suggest that labor market conditions are already weaker than employment trends indicate. Furthermore, the unemployment rate could increase rapidly once it begins to rise, as observed in the past."

Considering the RBA's dual objectives of price stability and full employment, concerns about the labor market shift the probability away from rate hikes.

The results of the June labor force report and the first-quarter CPI data will be crucial in determining not only the potential August rate increase but also the timing of possibly starting a rate cut cycle.

Should the unemployment rate fall lower or if the quarterly Trimmed Mean CPI exceeds 1.0%, it could challenge the RBA's current outlook.

Both Westpac and CBA predict the second quarter's Trimmed Mean CPI will be around 0.9%, which suggests that rates may remain unchanged.

Published:Wednesday, 3rd Jul 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Winning Group's Electric Truck Initiative in Sydney and Melbourne

08 May 2026: Paige Estritori

In a significant move towards sustainable logistics, Australian appliance and logistics company Winning Group has partnered with fleet electrification specialist Zenobē to deploy 30 electric trucks across its operations in Sydney and Melbourne. This initiative is supported by a $3.65 million investment from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) through the Driving the Nation Fund. - read more

New Energy Transport's Milestone in Electric Freight Delivery

08 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian trucking company New Energy Transport has successfully completed what is being hailed as the country's first fully electric end-to-end heavy road freight delivery. This landmark achievement involved transporting goods from a distribution centre in Sydney to Canberra, approximately 300 kilometres away, on a single charge of an electric long-haul truck manufactured by Belgium-based Windrose. - read more

Janus Electric's New Conversion Centre in Adelaide

08 May 2026: Paige Estritori

Australian electric truck conversion company Janus Electric has announced the launch of its first dealer-led conversion centre in Adelaide, in partnership with Archer Heavy Equipment. This facility marks the beginning of Janus's nationwide rollout of its heavy-vehicle electrification platform. - read more

Volvo's Next-Generation Electric Trucks: A Leap Forward for Australian Transport

30 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

Volvo Trucks has introduced its latest range of heavy-duty electric vehicles, including the FH, FM, and FMX models, now boasting an impressive range of up to 400 kilometres. This development marks a significant advancement in electric truck technology, offering Australian operators enhanced performance and flexibility. - read more

Wilton Project: Pioneering Australia's Largest Electric Truck Depot

30 Apr 2026: Paige Estritori

New Energy Transport's Wilton Project has been selected as one of the inaugural initiatives under the Australian Government's Investor Front Door program. Located southwest of Sydney, this depot is set to become the nation's largest electric truck facility, supporting up to 50 heavy electric trucks. - read more

Click for more Finance News